Mackay – QLD 2020

This is one of the seats where One Nation only need a small swing to overtake the LNP, and then get close to winning on their prefs. Compulsory preferencing makes seats like this more vulnerable than they were in 1998. Probable Labor retain, but (especially with local campaigning from Mirani next door) I wouldn’t be chalking it up as a win just yet.

Labor will probably lose here. There seems to be a political realignment in North QLD and I don’t think those voters will come back easy. George Christensen winning Dawson in a landslide says it all.

Liberals could choose to save Labor if it’s PHON that do well from the realignment, but I’m not seeing that happening.

I’ll admit to being surprised if LNP gain this seat, considering its one of the 7 that did not fall in 2012.

Any seat helps toward the 9 though!

That being said, maybe it was because the Labor member was well-respected through his long tenure. Side note that he passed away this week.

For any given Labor primary vote with the LNP and ON roughly tied for second, the ALP/ON margin will be smaller than the equivalent ALP/Lib margin, as LNP voters are a lot more obedient with HTV cards. Labor managed to get 42% of One Nation preferences here – I know a few of them came via the other two candidates, but that’s still big.

A simplistic alternative 2cp on the 2017 figures: assign 80% of LNP to ON, 80% of Green to Labor, and the independent half each. That gives about 54% ALP vs ON – it’s a disguised marginal seat.

Of the three major parties (in this part of Qld), the LNP are least likely to win. If they get a small swing, it just ensures Labor win.

I want to reiterate how bad Labor did here last year. This is in a seat Labor was expecting to win, where Shorten did a town hall. Instead, not only is Dawson now a safe LNP seat (one of the safest in QLD) but Labor didn’t win a single booth in Dawson in 2019, and lost most Mackay booths by around 60/40. This was despite George Christensen bring scandal plagued. I think that counted, Christensen barely increased his primary vote, but Labor had a 12% swing against on primaries and 11% 2PP. Belinda Hassan got elected to council the following year so I doubt it was personal. Indeed, Labor did even worse in the Senate (<20%)

I have no idea what Julieanne Gilbert is like as a local MP, and state and federal are different beasts especially in QLD. Sure, the seat was a Labor stronghold thst wouldn't even budge in 2012. But unless someone has a good explanation for Labor's collapse in this area in 2019, we have to assume it might happen again.

George Cristensens win doesn’t matter. That is Federal politics. Explain why QLD has mostly had Labour governments in the past quarter of a century whereas they consistantly vote for the Liberal party at federal. No way the ALP lose this. They held on on 2012. And anyone is delusional to think thr LNP will win a majority government. Same people who said Newman would win 5 years ago. Didn’t happen. BJA is yet to say why he thinks and why should voters throw out a popular government amidst a pandemic. And why he thinks the LNP deserve to win without saying Newman was a “good premier” when he was the worst in over 50 years. Worse than Joh if you ask me. The LNP could win minority if Labor screws up. But majority? Dream on mate. 2017 and 2015 must have been a fluke on your logic. Even if the LNP win some of thr seats you say they will. You assume they will hold onto all of their own. They won’t. They will likely lose at least a couple of their own seats. Which would cancel out any gains.

Daniel, just a few points…

1. You are right that State/Federal divergence is a thing – see Howard and Beattie landslides.

2. People always like to bring up Sir Joh, yet ignore the fact that Queenslanders voted for him at every election (yes, even if we exclude the gerrymander and look just at 2PP).

3. Re: Newman, the fact that people were wrong in the past does not necessarily mean they will be wrong this time.

4. As the EM by-election demonstrated, approval does not necessarily translate into voting intention. I think at best, Labor’s popularity in QLD is highly localised. I expect them to do well in Brisbane, but closing down the borders is literally killing tourism. Labor will find it difficult to win if they start haemorrhaging support outside Brisbane.

5. LNP majority government is unlikely, but the 2PP is relatively close and ONP are a wildcard. This will be a seat-by-seat battle so who’s to say what will happen? I can easily foresee a situation where Labor end up with net gains if they play their cards right. On the other hand, they could just as easily end up below 40 if people start to get fed up with border controls.

I’ll start making my early predictions just for a bit of fun (I might change some closer but I also may not) Daniel is right, what happened in Dawson doesn’t matter in a state election. Labor are in no danger of losing, even though I think Labor will have a mad night in regional Qld. As for PHON, they don’t seem to be getting anywhere near the media hype as they did in 2017 so surely they drop below how they did then, which was one seat only. I remember know it all on Sky, Paul Murray claimed PHON would win 12 seats in 2017 lol.

September Prediction for Mackay: Labor retain.

@Feel the Bern – glad to see others making predictions : ) shall be fun to see who’s right on election night.

Under my original assessment I had this as ALP retain, and recent events coupled with neighbouring electorates of Whitsunday or Mirani have made me be a little skeptical about that. However as mentioned by @BJA this was one of the magnificent 7 that didn’t fall in 2012. I’ve heard both positives and negatives of Julieanne, but think overall she’ll hold as most seem to be fine with her.

Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

I agree the Dawson 2019 result is irrelevant to whatever happens in the state seats, likewise Capricornia and Flynn. Especially Capricornia, because I believe Michelle Landry was personally rewarded for being active.

I don’t know what will happen on Oct 31, I could have it all wrong but my dreams could also come true. All I can go on is MY lived experience and from that, a so called popular premier should be thrown out amidst a pandemic.

You cannot judge the Dawson and Capricornia Federal elections with this state election. The key will be whether QLD Labor supports Coal mining or not. I think you will see something different in Dawson next election.

John
I find your views compelling. I see this seat as being a ON gimme, if the ON candidate is not a total moron.
The realignment you mentioned, is a large section of labor’s core vote realising that Labor doesn’t even see them. MAYBE the labor voters will loyally vote team red on more time, maybe not. I think that was last time 2017, & now they are over it (LABOR).

FTB clearly we don’t agree
Wreathy like your point 5

Daniel
I’ll bite.
Ignore the Dawson result. That’s right it didn’t happen !?. No, it didn’t matter !!?. No “we” just don’t understand it !? ( that it was some kind of special aberration )!!??. But overall theres just nothing to see, or consider, right!? Because you think so……!.
ALL RIGHT

This WAS,, I REPEAT W.A.S. a popular govt, with a popular Premier. In the PAST voters “bought” the nice girl image maybe they still will, who knows ?. However since Trad left Anna’a weakness has been exposed. Anna is looking rigid, frightened, even frozen in terror. Her desperation is marked with panic, aggression, controlling actions, & overreactions.
She is ruling not serving, reacting, not leading. All this & more is there to see for those that care to look. Some that have voted for her will feel deceived, mislead, & exploited. That is why they will vote against a govt in a “pandemic”. Which btw is a massive exploitation in itself.

One last thing the LNP don’t need to win 9 seats. Labor just need to lose 9 seats END…..

Obviously a repeat of Dawson would mean a lnp win……. But state figures are much better. Maybe 15 to 20% better 2pp. Also if labor does not win…. The likelihood is that there will be a hung parliament and at least a 50 /50 chance of a new election before term..cross bench 1 gr 1ind 1 one and 3 kap…. What if there are more cross benches

A placed a bet on Christensen holding Dawson in 2019 and was not at all surprised by the huge swing towards him. Intolerance and bigotry is a vote winner in North Queensland.

Ok I’m coming to the party a bit more since seeing internal polling here, I’ll now officially make my September prediction. Labor hold BUT a very big scare from PHON. Could take days to count. I don’t give the LNP any chance.

It’s very interesting that in this election, 3 of Labor’s “magnificent 7” seats that they held onto in 2012 are not going to be trivial retains:
South Brisbane is a likely loss to Greens.
Mackay and Rockhampton may end up being swept out with the tide turning against Labor in the regions if the federal election is any indication. Labor is defending a bigger margin here but this area was far worse for them in 2019 than Rockhampton was.

Nobody seems to think there’s any risk in Mulgrave.
Bundamba, Inala, Woodridge will be ALP for a very long time (barring independents, resignations etc.)

@ John, Mulgrave is at no risk only because of the sitting member.

Eventually Labor won’t be able to defy gravity here anymore but they’ve been doing this for a long time and if that Courier-Mail regional poll counts for anything they might do it again.

@Geoffrey Robinson, I agree I think Mackay is no longer the Labor stronghold it once was.

I think eventually it will fall to the LNP or one of the minors. Especially if Labor shifts more to the Left in the next term (assuming they win a third term).

There have been issues at McKay pre-poll booths in regards to the display of candidates apparel and what not being banned. I am aware of complaints that have been send to ECQ and also know Stephen Andrew (MP ONP-Mirani) has been at pre-polls has has been frustrated, like the other candidates, also in the selection of pre-poll places for McKay. I’m hearing from this, it’s been choas trying to help voters work out which electorate they are in and information on who to vote for (as these booths cover, McKay, southern end of Whitsunday and northern end of Mirani).

Nevertheless, word from those I’ve spoken to at the pre-polls is that it looks like Mirani is firm for ONP, Mackay may JUST hold for ALP and Whitsunday is still close.

[Ps: Dual posted on other seat profiles that have been referenced and separate discussions on those seats.]

The fact that ECQ is very late in revealing the prepoll locations and require HTV to be approved prevents a bit of management in having HTV covering more than one electorate. I am not sure how ECQ would react if Mackay’s HTV was on side 1 and Whitsundays on side 2 but that is obvious solution for political parties.
Voters generally do not know the seat they are in and many are very hostile to finding out where they live. They frequently believe that help to give them the right HTV is an infringement on their privacy.

Prediction: ALP Retain

Labor retain unless huge collapse in their first preference similar to the federal election. I do expect a swing against Labor halving the margin.

I still think Labor are in trouble here. Their “we love coal” campaigning will backfire, and not because the locals don’t like coal, but because it will make the party look kind if phony and unprincipled as other parties correctly point out the inconsistency. It seems patronising, and in making coal one of the election issues the LNP are on firmer ground.

The only thing going for Labor here is history and incumbency. Labor could easily win the election (off SEQ gains) and lose Mackay

Labor hold because One Nation is faded